Mid-October : just when we were getting comfortable having
gotten past mid-September's statistically worst time for storms, one comes along to remind us it's not over until it's over.
Gonzalo is forecast to be reaching hurricane strength by the
time it passes near the British Virgin Islands, and so a Hurricane Warning is in effect there.
Although hurricane conditions are not currently expected in the
U.S. Virgin Islands, only a slight deviation to the left of the
forecast track, or a more rapid strengthening of the storm, would result in the need to extend the Hurricane Warning into those
areas (recall from 1995, Hurricane Luis, and then Hurricane
Marilyn, which deviated slightly from Luis' more benign track).
So here comes T/S Debby, with similar patterns as Beryl, except that Debby is Gulf-based. Where Debby makes landfall is the unanswered question as I post this projection, with a wide area centered around Florida's Panhandle as a candidate for lots of wind and rain evolving over the next five days.
(I didn't want to wish our Texan neighbors any harm, but originally I was kind of excited at the possibility of movie remakes of "Debby Does Dallas".)
As with Beryl, T/S Debby is excepted to diminish in strength as it approaches and makes landfall, not quite reaching 75mph hurricane strength.
Hurricane Season starts June/July, depending on who you ask, and ends in Oct/November --- that's approximately 5-6 months of every year, not to mention the occasional storm that appears late or early, as T/S Beryl is doing here.
Fortunately Beryl looks to be maxing out as a Tropical Storm when it makes landfall, but sub-hurricane 70 mph winds are just that, so I hope everyone watches this one closely and doesn't throw caution to the wind.
